Is Gold Really a Safe Haven? Comparing Gold vs. S&P 500 Annual Returns (1970–2024)

Gold is back in the headlines—up 25% year-to-date (as of May 2025) and 41% over the past 12 months. But before you chase the latest winner, it’s worth checking the scoreboard.

The chart above shows every calendar year since 1970 for both gold and the S&P 500. If you thought gold was a sure thing, the reality is more complicated:

• Gold finished the year in the red 22 times—about 40% of the time.

• The S&P 500 had just 11 negative years—roughly 20% of the time.

Gold’s hot streaks are impressive but far from predictable. It’s not the steady “safe haven” many investors imagine. Consistency—not headlines—is what matters most for long-term results. And while gold’s average annual return looks strong on paper, much of that is due to outlier years in the 1970s during the transition away from the gold standard. Data Source:Calendar year returns data for gold and the S&P 500 (1970–2024) are sourced from Dimensional Returns Web (Dimensional Fund Advisors).

Disclosures:This information is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The returns presented do not reflect any advisory fees, transaction costs, or taxes. Indexes are unmanaged and not available for direct investment.

The views expressed are those of the author and do not constitute investment advice. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.